US Dollar: Election scenarios and Iran risk – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's analysis, as reflected in the headline, points to US dollar exposure being shaped by two distinct risk sources: the scenarios surrounding the upcoming US election and the geopolitical risk associated with Iran. The transmission channel runs largely through risk appetite and safe-haven demand, since election outcomes can alter expectations for fiscal policy, trade tariffs, and the path of Federal Reserve policy, while Iran-related tensions typically lift demand for dollars and other havens during periods of heightened uncertainty. Assets most sensitive to these shifts include dollar crosses against EUR and JPY, as well as oil-linked currencies and energy prices, given Iran's role as a major crude producer and the potential for supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Traders should watch the next US inflation print and Federal Reserve communications for signals on how rate expectations interact with election-driven policy uncertainty, alongside any escalation in Gulf shipping or sanctions headlines that could shift safe-haven flows.

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