ANZ HAS RAISED ITS HONG KONG 2026 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.1% FROM 3.8%, PUTTING HONG KONG ON TRACK FOR ITS STRONGEST GDP GROWTH SINCE 2010

ANZ has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to 5.1% from 3.8%, a revision that would place the city on track for its strongest expansion since 2010. The upgrade transmits to markets mainly through the growth-expectations channel, lifting the outlook for corporate earnings, property demand, and tourism-linked spending, which in turn tends to support sentiment toward Hong Kong equities and the Hong Kong dollar. Hong Kong-listed companies with heavy exposure to domestic consumption, retail, and mainland Chinese visitor flows are likely to be most sensitive to a stronger growth path, while banks could benefit from firmer loan demand and rising interest income. Traders should watch the next official Census and Statistics Department GDP release and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's guidance on the interest rate outlook, since any upward growth surprise combined with sticky inflation could shift rate-differential expectations against the HKD peg.

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