BoJ minutes: board backed further hikes, flagged 50% oil surge as government urged caution

The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes show board members backed further interest rate hikes, while noting a 50% surge in oil prices and that the government had urged caution. The transmission channel runs through two competing forces: oil-driven imported inflation pushes the case for tightening, while the government's call for restraint and the cost pressure on households and firms argue for a slower pace. For Japan, the yen sits at the center of the repricing, since a firmer policy outlook narrows the rate differential with the United States and tends to support the currency, while higher energy import costs weigh on Japan's terms of trade and the current account. Japanese government bonds and rate-sensitive equities are also exposed to any shift in the expected path of policy. The next catalyst to watch is Japan's national CPI release, particularly core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, which will indicate whether the oil shock is feeding through into broader price pressures and whether the board's hawkish lean is justified.

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