THE COURSE OF U.S.-IRANIAN NEGOTIATIONS WILL BECOME CLEARER ON FRIDAY, AND THEY HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS - AL-JADEED, CITING ARAB DIPLOMATIC SOURCES

Arab diplomatic sources, as cited by the outlet Al-Jadeed, indicated that the trajectory of U.S.-Iranian negotiations will become clearer on Friday and that both sides have made significant progress. The headline attributes the assessment to unnamed intermediaries rather than to official government statements, so its market weight depends on subsequent confirmation from Washington or Tehran. The primary transmission channel is geopolitical risk premium, which feeds into crude oil through expectations about Iranian export volumes and Strait of Hormuz transit risk, and into safe-haven demand in gold and Treasuries. Iranian-linked instruments and regional sovereign debt are the most directly exposed, while Brent crude and shipping and insurance rates would reprice quickly if a deal framework gains credibility. The key catalyst is any official readout or joint statement following Friday's expected update, as well as the next OPEC+ production signals that would determine how much supply relief a sanctions easing could realistically add.

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