IRGC ADVISOR: IN CASE OF WAR, IRAN’S RETALIATION WON’T BE RESTRICTED TO SOURCE OF ATTACK - TASNIM

An advisor to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as reported by the Tasnim news agency, stated that in the event of war Iran's retaliation would not be limited to the origin of any attack. The statement signals a broadening of the potential geographic and target scope of any military exchange, which raises the probability of a regional escalation beyond a bilateral strike. The transmission channel runs through geopolitical risk premia and risk appetite: a wider conflict perimeter tends to lift oil prices through expectations of supply disruption in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, while pushing investors toward safe havens such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Japanese yen. The most exposed markets are crude oil benchmarks, regional equities and currencies across the Gulf, shipping and insurance rates, and emerging-market assets sensitive to energy import costs. Traders should watch the next official statements from Iranian and U.S. authorities and any movement in Brent crude and tanker insurance premiums in the Gulf for confirmation of whether the rhetoric is translating into operational signals.

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