US ATLANTA FED GDPNOW MODEL ESTIMATES US Q4 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 3.4%, DOWN FROM 3.7% PREVIOUSLY, AFTER ISM, TRADE, OTHER DATA REPORTS

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now estimates fourth-quarter US real GDP growth at an annualized 3.4%, down from its prior reading of 3.7%, following updated inputs from the ISM manufacturing and services reports and recent trade data. The downward revision reflects incoming weakness in the source data rather than a change in the model's underlying structure, and it trims the nowcast's estimate of consumption and investment contributions that feed into headline output. For rates markets, a modest step-down in real growth nowcasts shifts the balance between growth and inflation signals, which can compress front-end yields if traders read it as easing pressure on the Federal Reserve's policy path, while leaving longer-dated yields sensitive to any offsetting inflation data. Equities and the dollar are the most directly exposed, since growth-sensitive cyclical sectors and dollar-denominated assets reprice quickly to changes in the expected growth-rate trajectory. The next concrete catalyst is the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, where traders will compare the official print against the 3.4% nowcast to judge the model's

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