US Midterm Elections 2026: Trump approval plunges to 38% as polls begin to close, CBS exit poll shows

A CBS exit poll, as reported by Currents, shows President Trump's approval rating at 38% as polling stations begin to close in the 2026 US midterm elections. The headline frames the figure as a plunge, though the source material does not provide the prior baseline needed to quantify the change. The transmission channel for markets runs through policy expectations: a weaker presidential approval reading raises the probability that the November outcome shifts congressional control, which can alter the odds for fiscal, tariff, and regulatory legislation and reprice risk premia in sectors sensitive to that agenda. Assets most directly exposed include US equity sectors tied to federal policy, such as defense, healthcare, energy, and financials, along with election-linked prediction and event-contract markets, where price discovery is most immediate. The key catalyst for traders is the first tranche of actual vote counts and early results in key Senate and House races, since these will confirm or contradict the exit poll signal and determine whether the policy repricing is sustained.

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