Russia, China may be more aggressive if they feel Trump is on "his way out": Brookings

A Brookings analysis, as reported by CNBC, suggests that Russia and China could become more aggressive in their international conduct if they perceive that Donald Trump is on his way out of office. The transmission channel here runs through geopolitical risk premia rather than direct economic data: shifts in expectations about U.S. policy durability can alter how markets price sanctions exposure, Taiwan Strait tail risk, and the probability of escalation in Eastern Europe. Assets most sensitive to this repricing include Russian sovereign and energy-linked instruments, Chinese equities with U.S. revenue or regulatory exposure, and U.S. defense contractors and safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc. Traders should watch the next wave of U.S. policy signaling on sanctions enforcement and export controls, as well as any official statements from Beijing and Moscow that test Washington's resolve.

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