FED'S WILLIAMS STATES THAT THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS IS Mostly COMPLETE AND WE ARE PAST IT NOW.

New York Fed President John Williams stated that the inflationary impact of tariffs is mostly complete and that the economy is now past that effect. The comment signals that policymakers may view tariff-driven goods price increases as a one-time level shift rather than a persistent source of inflation, which would reduce the pressure on the Fed to keep policy restrictive on that basis. The transmission runs through inflation expectations and the rate path: if tariff pass-through is finished, markets may reprice fewer inflation risk premia into front-end Treasuries and shift focus toward labor market and core services data. Import-sensitive sectors such as retail and consumer goods, along with the tariff-affected trade-exposed equities, are most directly exposed to any change in the perceived duration of tariff costs. Traders should watch the next core PCE release and the import price index for confirmation of whether goods inflation is actually rolling over.

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