Ukraine to lose 1.9 p.p. of GDP due to infrastructure damage, seaport blockade — NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine has projected that the country's GDP will be reduced by 1.9 percentage points due to damage to infrastructure and a blockade of its seaports, according to a report carried by Tass. The transmission mechanism runs primarily through supply disruption and export capacity: constrained seaborne shipments of grain, metals and other goods weaken foreign-currency inflows, which in turn pressures the hryvnia and the external balance and feeds back into domestic investment and output. Ukrainian sovereign debt, the hryvnia, and export-linked equities or commodity-sensitive counterparties are the most directly exposed, as reduced port throughput tightens the availability of foreign exchange and raises risk premia on Ukrainian assets. Traders should watch the next NBU quarterly inflation and macroeconomic report, along with monthly export and port throughput data, for confirmation of whether the projected contraction is translating into weaker trade flows.

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