US Dollar: Payrolls support keeps range intact – ING

ING's assessment, as reported by FXStreet, is that the US dollar is holding within its recent trading range, with payrolls data providing support for the currency. The transmission mechanism runs through the interest-rate channel: stronger-than-expected employment figures reduce the probability of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, which narrows expected rate differentials and supports dollar demand relative to major peers. Dollar-sensitive exposures are most directly affected, including G10 currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, as well as emerging-market currencies that are sensitive to dollar funding conditions. The next concrete catalyst is the upcoming US Consumer Price Index release, since inflation data will determine whether the labor-market strength feeds into a firmer rate-expectations repricing or is offset by softer price pressures.

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