US Non Farm Payrolls (Oct. 2026): 165 actual (est 65, prev 60)

The US economy added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls in October 2026, well above the consensus estimate of 65,000 and the prior month's reading of 60,000. The upside surprise points to firmer labor demand than markets had priced, which pushes the rate-differential channel in favor of the dollar as traders reassess the Federal Reserve's path for policy rates. A stronger jobs print typically lifts Treasury yields, particularly at the front end of the curve, while weighing on rate-sensitive equities and gold. The dollar index and short-dated Treasury yields are the most directly exposed instruments, with the two-year note most sensitive to shifts in near-term policy expectations. The next catalyst to watch is the upcoming Consumer Price Index release, since wage-driven inflation pressure would determine whether the labor surprise translates into a sustained repricing of Fed expectations.

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