Iranian news agency: The army’s air defenses shot down an American MQ-9 drone over Qeshm Island in the south of the country today.

Iran's state news agency reported that the army's air defenses shot down an American MQ-9 drone over Qeshm Island in southern Iran, a claim that has not been independently confirmed in the headline. The transmission channel here is geopolitical risk premium: a reported shootdown of a US military asset raises the probability of direct US-Iran military escalation, which typically pushes investors toward safe havens and lifts oil through supply-disruption expectations given Iran's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's domestic assets, including the rial and Tehran-listed equities, are the most directly exposed, as sanctions-constrained capital and currency markets tend to price such incidents quickly and sharply. Traders should watch for any official US Department of Defense confirmation or denial, as well as Brent crude's reaction in the next trading session and any Iranian Revolutionary Guard statements on maritime activity in the Gulf.

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