Russian aide and military intelligence chief to attend talks with US and Ukraine, Kremlin says

The Kremlin has said a senior Russian presidential aide and the head of military intelligence will take part in talks involving the United States and Ukraine, signaling a higher-level diplomatic engagement than prior contacts. The transmission mechanism for markets runs primarily through geopolitical risk premia and capital flows: any perceived progress toward a ceasefire or settlement tends to compress war-risk pricing in Russian and Ukrainian sovereign and corporate exposures, while also shifting expectations for European energy and commodity flows. Assets most directly exposed include Russian rouble-denominated instruments and Moscow-listed equities, which are sensitive to sanctions expectations, along with Ukrainian Eurobonds, which trade on recovery and restructuring assumptions. Energy-linked benchmarks such as European natural gas and oil also carry indirect sensitivity, since sanctions relief or new restrictions would alter supply expectations. The next concrete catalyst to watch is the readout from the talks themselves, particularly any official statement on sanctions, prisoner exchanges, or a framework for a ceasefire, as these would be the first hard signals to repr

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