Trump to CNN: I am unlikely to order a return to war with Iran if progress continues in the talks.

President Trump told CNN he is unlikely to order a return to war with Iran provided diplomatic talks continue to show progress, a statement that signals a conditional de-escalation stance rather than a firm commitment. The remark transmits to markets primarily through the geopolitical risk premium: a reduced probability of renewed military conflict lowers the bid for safe-haven assets and reduces the risk of a supply shock to Gulf crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil and oil-linked equities are the most directly exposed, since any perceived shift in Iran-related conflict odds feeds immediately into energy prices and shipping insurance costs, while gold and Treasuries are exposed on the safe-haven side. Traders should watch the next formal diplomatic milestones and any official Iranian response, as well as the weekly EIA crude inventory report, for evidence of whether the conditional language translates into sustained lower geopolitical premia in energy pricing.

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