Former President Donald Trump, according to a CNN report, described a return to war with Iran as "highly improbable" if negotiations between the two sides continue. The headline's core signal is a reduction in perceived near-term military escalation risk, which typically feeds through to markets via the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil, defense equities, and safe-haven assets such as gold and Treasuries. A lower probability of Gulf supply disruption would tend to compress crude oil's war-risk component, while weighing on energy names and defense contractors that trade on conflict expectations. Crude oil futures and Gulf-exposed energy equities are the most directly sensitive, with secondary effects on shipping insurance rates and regional currencies. Traders should watch the next OPEC+ production decision and weekly EIA crude inventory data for confirmation of whether any easing in geopolitical tension is translating into physical supply expectations.
TRUMP ON IRAN: ‘HIGHLY IMPROBABLE’ US WILL RETURN TO WAR IF NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED – CNN
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