TRUMP ON IRAN: 'HIGHLY UNLIKELY' WILL ORDER US BACK TO WAR WITH IRAN IF TALKS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS

President Trump reportedly said it is "highly unlikely" he would order a return to military conflict with Iran if ongoing negotiations continue to advance. The statement reduces the near-term probability of a US-Iran military escalation, which transmits primarily through the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, where a lower expected supply disruption compresses crude's risk component and can weigh on energy equities and safe-haven demand. Crude oil and Gulf-linked energy names are the most directly exposed, while gold, Treasuries, and defense contractors typically reprice downward when escalation odds fall. Traders should watch the next round of US-Iran diplomatic developments and any official statements on negotiating deadlines or sanctions relief, alongside weekly EIA crude inventory data, for confirmation of whether the de-escalation signal holds.

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