NY Fed October survey shows 1, 3 and 5 year inflation expectations unchanged

The New York Federal Reserve's October Survey of Consumer Expectations showed consumers' inflation expectations at the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year horizons were unchanged from the prior reading. The transmission channel here runs through inflation repricing: stable household expectations reduce the likelihood that the Fed faces a de-anchoring problem, which in turn supports the case for policy decisions to be driven by incoming data rather than by a shift in long-run price psychology. Short-dated rate expectations and breakeven inflation measures in Treasuries are the most directly exposed, since any deviation from unchanged readings would feed quickly into front-end yields and the curve's inflation compensation. The dollar and rate-sensitive equities such as housing and small caps also respond to shifts in the policy path implied by these expectations. The next catalyst to watch is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index release, which will provide the realized inflation data against which these survey expectations will be judged.

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