BOJ OCTOBER MEETING SUMMARY OF OPINIONS SHOWS ONE MEMBER SAID UNDERLYING INFLATION HAS HIT 2% AND THE BOJ MUST RAISE THE POLICY RATE TO A NEUTRAL LEVEL SOON, WITH ANOTHER SAYING JAPAN IS ENTERING A NEW PHASE REQUIRING FASTER RATE HIKES TOWARD NEUTRAL LEVELS AND THAT THE BANK MUST MOVE THE RATE TO NEUTRAL EARLY FOR A FLEXIBLE RESPONSE IN HIKES AND CUTS

The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from its October meeting shows that one board member judged underlying inflation has reached 2% and argued the central bank must raise its policy rate to a neutral level soon, while another member stated that Japan is entering a new phase that requires a fundamentally different policy approach. The headline is truncated, so the full characterization of the second member's view is not confirmed here. The transmission mechanism runs primarily through rate expectations and the yen: a hawkish tilt narrows the policy rate gap with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, which tends to support the yen by reducing the appeal of carry trades funded in yen. Japanese government bonds and the yen are the most directly exposed, with the front end of the JGB curve sensitive to any repricing of the timing of the next hike, while Japanese equities, particularly exporters, can react inversely to yen strength. The next catalyst for traders to watch is Japan's national consumer price index release, which will show whether underlying inflation is sustaining the 2% pace cited by the policymaker.

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