EIA KEPT 2026 WORLD OIL DEMAND UNCHANGED AT 102.4 MLN BPD BUT CUT 2027 TO 104.4 MLN BPD FROM 104.6 MLN, WHILE RAISING 2026 WORLD OIL OUTPUT TO 101.7 MLN BPD FROM 101.1 MLN AND CUTTING 2027 TO 108.4 MLN BPD FROM 109.6 MLN

The U.S. Energy Information Administration held its 2026 world oil demand forecast unchanged at 102.4 million barrels per day while trimming its 2027 estimate to 104.4 million from 104.6 million. On the supply side, the agency raised its 2026 world output projection to 101.7 million bpd from 101.1 million, but lowered its 2027 figure to 108.4 million from 109.6 million. The revisions point to a narrower forecast gap between supply and demand in 2026, with 2026 output now sitting about 0.7 million bpd below demand, and a sharper retreat in projected 2027 supply than in demand, which shifts the balance toward a tighter market in the later year. Crude benchmarks are the most directly exposed, as the revised balances feed into expectations for inventory drawdowns and forward curve structure, while the downward 2027 supply revision could support longer-dated contracts relative to near-month prices. The next catalyst for traders to watch is the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook follow-up and the weekly Petroleum Status Report, which will show whether observed U.S. inventories are tracking the drawdown implied by these projections

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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