EIA RAISED 2026 U.S. NATURAL GAS OUTPUT TO 113 BCF/D FROM 112.2 AND 2027 TO 117.6 BCF/D FROM 116.1, WITH PRODUCTION SEEN RISING TO 127.1 BCF/D IN NOVEMBER AND 127.6 BCF/D IN DECEMBER

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 forecast for dry natural gas production to 113 billion cubic feet per day from 112.2 Bcf/d, and lifted its 2027 estimate to 117.6 Bcf/d from 116.1 Bcf/d. The agency also projected monthly output climbing to 127.1 Bcf/d in November and 127.6 Bcf/d in December. The transmission mechanism runs through supply expectations: higher forecast output loosens the balance between production and demand, which tends to pressure Henry Hub spot and forward prices, with the curve's winter contracts most sensitive to the projected December ramp. Front-month NATGAS futures and calendar-strip contracts stand most exposed, since these price the forward supply outlook directly, while LNG-linked and utility hedging positions face repricing if storage builds track above consensus. Traders should watch the next weekly EIA storage report and the Baker Hughes rig count for confirmation of whether production gains are materializing ahead of winter demand.

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