FED’S PAULSON SAYS THE ECONOMY IS MORE RESILIENT THAN EXPECTED WITH A FIRM AND STEADY JOB MARKET

Federal Reserve official Paulson stated that the U.S. economy is more resilient than expected, with a firm and steady labor market. The message reduces the probability that incoming data will justify near-term policy easing, since a strong labor market supports sustained consumer spending and wage growth that can keep services inflation elevated. In rates markets, this shifts repricing toward a later or shallower path of rate cuts, which tends to lift Treasury yields at the front end and widen the real-yield differential that supports the dollar. Rate-sensitive segments such as long-duration equities, small-cap stocks reliant on floating-rate debt, and housing-linked names are most exposed to a higher-for-longer repricing, while cyclical sectors tied to consumer demand may benefit from the growth signal. The next catalyst to watch is the monthly nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings report, where wage growth readings will determine whether this resilience narrative translates into renewed inflation concern.

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