German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that the EU's upcoming budget cannot come at the expense of support for Ukraine, signaling Berlin's resistance to cuts in Ukraine-related funding during multiannual budget negotiations. The transmission mechanism runs primarily through sovereign risk and geopolitical risk premia: a firm commitment to sustained aid reduces the probability of a funding gap that could strain Ukraine's fiscal financing and raise its country risk, while also reinforcing expectations of EU policy continuity. Ukrainian sovereign debt and hryvnia-denominated instruments are the most directly exposed, as their pricing reflects perceptions of external financing reliability, and Eastern European currencies and bonds may show secondary sensitivity to shifts in EU fiscal solidarity. Traders should watch the forthcoming EU Council negotiations on the multiannual financial framework and any formal allocation figures for the Ukraine Facility, as concrete budgetary numbers will determine whether political assurances translate into durable funding.
GERMANY'S MERZ SAYS ON EU BUDGET CANNOT LESSEN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
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