More from Fed’s Bowman: Shifts focus to inflation, wants AI and Middle East risks to ease first

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has shifted her focus toward inflation, indicating she would prefer to see risks from artificial intelligence and Middle East tensions ease before she supports further policy adjustments. The remarks point to a transmission channel through the rate outlook: if policymakers condition their easing bias on geopolitical and technology-driven uncertainty, the path of real yields and the dollar becomes more dependent on incoming price data than on growth signals. Assets most exposed include Treasury yields at the front and belly of the curve, the US dollar against currencies with energy-sensitive trade balances, and Middle Eastern equities and sovereign debt, where regional risk premia are directly tied to conflict escalation. Traders should watch the next US Consumer Price Index release, since a hotter-than-expected core reading would reinforce Bowman's inflation-first framing and could push rate-cut expectations further out.

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