Morning Kickstart. Oil slides as Waller puts a half-point hike in play. Markets brace for CPI

Oil prices slid in early trading after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a 50-basis-point rate hike is under consideration, a larger move than the standard quarter-point increment. The transmission channel runs through the rate-differential and inflation-expectations mechanism: a more aggressive Fed path strengthens the dollar and raises real yields, which dampens dollar-denominated commodity demand and weighs on crude as traders price slower global growth. Crude futures and rate-sensitive assets are most exposed, since oil is priced in dollars and tends to react sharply to shifts in expected policy tightening, while front-end Treasury yields and dollar-linked currency pairs are likely to move in tandem. Traders are now positioning ahead of the upcoming Consumer Price Index release, which will be the key test of whether inflation is cooling enough to justify a smaller hike or whether the Fed's more hawkish stance is warranted.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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