Ukrainian Strikes Keep Disrupting Russian Refineries. Moscow's Oil Refining Capacity is Reportedly Down 30%.

Reports from Ibtimes state that repeated Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have continued to disrupt Russian refineries, with Moscow's refining capacity reportedly down about 30%. The primary transmission channel is supply disruption in refined products: a sustained loss of refining throughput tightens diesel and gasoline availability domestically and can push Russia toward greater crude exports, which shifts the balance between crude and product flows in global energy markets. Russian domestic fuel prices and the ruble are the most directly exposed, since shortages feed into inflation and can weigh on export receipts, while Ukraine's own economic outlook is affected primarily through the broader war-risk premium rather than energy prices. Traders should watch Russia's weekly fuel price and export data from official sources, along with the next OPEC+ production decision, since any shift in Russian product export volumes would alter diesel crack spreads and the wider regional energy trade balance.

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