US Dollar: Supported near term, softer later – ING

ING's view, as reported by FXStreet, is that the US dollar should find support in the near term but soften later in the horizon. The near-term support would most plausibly stem from rate differentials, as US yields remain relatively attractive versus peers and sustain demand for dollar-denominated assets. The later softening, by contrast, points toward the channel of expected policy easing and narrowing yield gaps, which tends to reduce the carry advantage and weigh on the currency through capital flows. Major dollar pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY would be the most directly exposed, along with dollar-sensitive emerging market currencies and dollar-funded risk assets. Traders should watch the next US CPI release and Federal Reserve communication on the rate path, as signals on the timing of cuts will shape whether the expected shift in dollar momentum materialises.

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