LIVE: Ukraine, Russia hold second day of US mediated talks in Abu Dhabi

Ukraine and Russia are holding a second consecutive day of US-mediated negotiations in Abu Dhabi, according to a live report from France24. The headline does not disclose the substance of the discussions, any agreed terms, or any ceasefire commitments, so the market read rests on process rather than outcome. The primary transmission channel is geopolitical risk premia, which affects European energy and commodity pricing, including natural gas and Brent crude, through expectations of supply normalization or renewed disruption. Ukrainian sovereign debt and Russia-linked instruments, along with Eastern European currencies such as the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, typically react most directly to shifts in peace-process expectations. The next concrete catalyst is any formal joint statement or US readout from the Abu Dhabi round, as well as European gas storage and TTF futures movements in the sessions that follow.

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