Trump: We don’t need a deal with Iran

President Donald Trump stated that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, signaling a rejection of near-term negotiated de-escalation on the Iran file. The main transmission channel is geopolitical risk premium: a reduced probability of a diplomatic settlement tends to lift crude oil and other energy-linked assets through higher expected supply disruption risk in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while boosting safe-haven demand for gold, the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc. Oil-importing economies and currencies sensitive to energy costs, such as the euro, Indian rupee, and Asian importers, are typically most exposed on the downside, while defense and energy equities tend to benefit. Traders should watch the next OPEC+ production decisions, weekly EIA crude inventory data, and any official Iranian response or Gulf shipping incidents, as these will determine whether the rhetoric translates into a sustained risk premium.

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