Fed’s Goolsbee: Labor Market Stable, Maybe Tightening A Bit - Cannot Look Through Inflation If Demand Is Overheating; Data Centre Buildout Is Pushing Up Prices - Agrees That Fed Has Work To Do On Inflation - Inflation Is Rising And Proving Far More Persistent Than Expected When It Was Just A Matter Of Supply Shocks - Services Inflation And Rising Health Care Costs Don't Feel Like They Will Change Quickly

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee characterized the labor market as stable and suggested financial conditions may be tightening somewhat, while stating the Fed cannot look through inflation if demand is overheating. He attributed part of the price pressure to the data center buildout and said the Fed still has work to do to bring inflation down. The transmission channel runs through inflation repricing: a hawkish tilt from an FOMC voter raises the probability of policy rates staying higher for longer, lifting real yields and compressing the rate-cut expectations embedded in the front end of the curve. Short-dated Treasuries and rate-sensitive equities, particularly long-duration growth names, are most exposed, while the U.S. dollar may firm on widening rate differentials. Traders should watch the next core PCE inflation release and any updated Fed funds futures pricing for signs of whether this stance is gaining support among other policymakers.

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