Iran’s refusal to discuss its nuclear program before Washington accepts its ceasefire conditions remains a central obstacle to ending the war, the Associated Press reported Saturday.

Iran has refused to discuss its nuclear program until Washington accepts its ceasefire conditions, a position the Associated Press reported on Saturday as a central obstacle to ending the war. The sticking point is a sequencing dispute: Tehran is tying nuclear negotiations to prior concessions, leaving the diplomatic track stalled and the conflict's duration uncertain. The primary transmission channel is geopolitical risk premia, which tend to lift crude oil and other energy prices on expectations of prolonged supply disruption in the Gulf region, while also boosting demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasuries. Energy producers and shipping and insurance-exposed names are most sensitive to escalation, while regional equity markets and emerging-market currencies face capital outflow pressure if the standoff persists. Traders should watch the next official diplomatic statements on any scheduled talks and weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration crude inventory data for early signs of supply stress.

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