BREAKING: Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, per NBC News. Peltola leads Sullivan 49.9% to 46% with almost all ballots counted.

NBC News projects that Democrat Mary Peltola will likely win Alaska's Senate race over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, with Peltola leading 49.9% to 46% with nearly all ballots counted. The result would shift the composition of the Senate and could alter the margin available to the majority party on committee votes and confirmations, a channel through which political outcomes feed into expectations for fiscal and regulatory policy. For markets, the transmission runs mainly through policy-sensitive sectors such as energy, healthcare, and financial regulation, where traders reprice expected legislative outcomes when control of the chamber is in question. Because the headline concerns a single seat with no direct asset linkage, the impact on broad indices is likely to be modest unless the result changes the expected balance of power. The next catalyst to watch is the certification of the final tally by Alaska election officials, along with any updated Senate control projections from major outlets as remaining races resolve.

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