Traders price in 70% chance of third ECB rate hike by December

Traders are assigning a 70% probability to the European Central Bank delivering a third rate hike by December, reflecting growing confidence in sustained inflationary pressures and a resilient eurozone economy. This pricing is primarily driven by shifts in rate differentials, as stronger-than-expected inflation data and hawkish ECB rhetoric increase expectations for tighter monetary policy. The euro has strengthened against major counterparts, particularly the dollar, while eurozone short-term interest rate futures have repriced significantly, with the deposit facility rate expected to remain higher for longer. Government bond yields in core eurozone economies have also risen, reflecting inflation repricing and reduced appetite for duration. Traders will closely watch the upcoming ECB meeting minutes and the November German CPI print for confirmation of the central bank’s forward guidance.

The Euro (EUR) is the currency of 20 European Union member states. Major EUR movers include ECB Governing Council decisions, Eurozone CPI prints, Bund/BTP spread events, and political risk from France, Germany and Italy.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

Active traders typically follow a three-step workflow when a market-moving headline hits the wire: (1) read the headline on the terminal or hear it on the squawk box; (2) assess whether the news is already priced in (by checking intraday price action in the seconds before) or whether it's genuinely new information; (3) act — either entering a breakout position, fading an overreaction, or tightening stops on existing trades. Trading News Terminal's Pro plan delivers wire-grade headlines within seconds of the source, with automatic audio squawk on every HIGH-impact event, so the read-assess-act cycle never waits on a refresh button.