Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks: Reuters poll

A Reuters poll indicates that financial markets now expect the Federal Reserve to delay its first rate cut until late 2026, citing persistent inflation risks linked to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The delayed easing outlook strengthens the U.S. dollar by reinforcing a longer-duration yield advantage, supported by sustained higher-for-longer rate differentials relative to other major economies. Defense-related equities and war-sensitive commodities (WAR) are seeing renewed investor interest as escalating conflict risks boost defense spending expectations and supply chain disruption premiums. The U.S. dollar and long-duration Treasuries remain particularly exposed should inflation expectations continue to reprice upward due to commodity or energy supply shocks. Traders will focus on the upcoming PCE inflation report and Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for signals on whether the central bank acknowledges heightened war-driven inflationary pressures.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

Active traders typically follow a three-step workflow when a market-moving headline hits the wire: (1) read the headline on the terminal or hear it on the squawk box; (2) assess whether the news is already priced in (by checking intraday price action in the seconds before) or whether it's genuinely new information; (3) act — either entering a breakout position, fading an overreaction, or tightening stops on existing trades. Trading News Terminal's Pro plan delivers wire-grade headlines within seconds of the source, with automatic audio squawk on every HIGH-impact event, so the read-assess-act cycle never waits on a refresh button.