Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks: Reuters poll

A Reuters poll indicates markets now expect the Federal Reserve to delay its first rate cut until late 2026, citing persistent inflation risks linked to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The delayed easing outlook strengthens the U.S. dollar due to sustained policy rate differentials, while upward pressure on inflation expectations reflects renewed concerns over supply chain disruptions and energy price volatility from war-related shocks. Treasury yields have repriced higher, particularly at the front end, as real rates are anticipated to remain elevated for longer. Equities in rate-sensitive sectors, such as utilities and real estate, face continued pressure, while commodity-linked assets and inflation-protected securities gain appeal. Traders will focus on the upcoming PCE inflation report and Fed speakers’ commentary for signals on whether the central bank is prepared to maintain a restrictive stance amid external shocks.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

Active traders typically follow a three-step workflow when a market-moving headline hits the wire: (1) read the headline on the terminal or hear it on the squawk box; (2) assess whether the news is already priced in (by checking intraday price action in the seconds before) or whether it's genuinely new information; (3) act — either entering a breakout position, fading an overreaction, or tightening stops on existing trades. Trading News Terminal's Pro plan delivers wire-grade headlines within seconds of the source, with automatic audio squawk on every HIGH-impact event, so the read-assess-act cycle never waits on a refresh button.