ECB Could Hike in June If Hormuz Reopens, Goldman Says

Goldman Sachs analysts suggested the European Central Bank could raise interest rates in June if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, alleviating supply chain pressures and reducing inflation risks. The transmission mechanism hinges on energy market normalization, as a reopened Hormuz would ease oil price-driven inflation, giving the ECB room to tighten policy without stalling growth. This scenario particularly impacts eurozone rates and bund futures, with EUR/USD also sensitive to shifting ECB rate expectations. Goldman’s outlook reflects recalibration of rate differential expectations based on external geopolitical resolution rather than domestic eurozone data. Traders will watch the next ECB meeting minutes and oil price trends, especially Brent crude volatility, as near-term indicators of policy trajectory.

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