ECB'S SAFE SURVEY: FIRMS EXPECTED STRONGER INCREASES IN SELLING PRICES ON IRAN WAR BUT WAGE EXPECTATIONS MODERATED SLIGHTLY

The ECB’s SAFE survey indicated that European firms anticipate stronger increases in selling prices due to geopolitical risks linked to potential spillovers from the Iran conflict, while wage growth expectations softened slightly. This divergence highlights inflationary pressures stemming from supply-side disruptions rather than domestic demand, reinforcing the ECB’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Energy and industrial sectors are particularly exposed, as heightened Middle East tensions threaten supply chains and elevate input costs. The market will focus on the upcoming March ECB monetary policy meeting for signals on whether policymakers will adjust forward guidance in response to elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Additionally, any escalation in Iran-related sanctions affecting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will likely amplify inflation expectations.

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