Bank of Israel to pause rate cuts ahead of October 27 election: Reuters poll

A Reuters poll of economists indicates the Bank of Israel is expected to hold its policy rate steady rather than continue cutting ahead of the October 27 election. The transmission mechanism runs through the rate differential and risk premia: a pause removes the prospect of further easing that had been narrowing the gap with higher-yielding peers, which tends to support the shekel relative to expectations of continued cuts. Israeli government bonds and the shekel are the most directly exposed, since shifts in short-rate expectations feed straight into yield curve pricing and currency carry positioning. Election-related political uncertainty adds a separate risk premium that can widen spreads and affect foreign capital flows into local assets. Traders should watch the next Israeli consumer price index release and any post-poll commentary from Bank of Israel officials for signals on inflation persistence and the timing of future rate decisions.

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