BoE’s Greene: Economy Has Shown Surprising Resilience - Should Proactively Lean Against Risk Of Second-Round Inflation Effects - Risk Of Second-Round Effects Is Greater Than We Thought - Wage Disinflation Seems To Have Stalled At Levels Above Those Consistent With Inflation At 2%

Bank of England policymaker Greene said the UK economy has shown surprising resilience and that the central bank should proactively lean against the risk of second-round inflation effects, which he judges greater than previously assumed. He also indicated that wage disinflation appears to have stalled, a development that bears directly on whether price pressures can be contained without further tightening. The transmission channel here runs through inflation expectations and policy rate repricing: if wage growth remains elevated, markets are likely to price a higher terminal Bank Rate and a later start to any easing cycle, which lifts short-dated gilt yields and steepens the curve, while sterling tends to firm on the rate differential. Gilts at the front end and short sterling futures are the most directly exposed, with rate-sensitive domestic equities such as housebuilders and mortgage-linked lenders vulnerable to a higher-for-longer repricing. Traders should watch the next UK labour market release for regular pay growth and the ONS CPI services inflation print, as these will determine whether Greene's concern about second-round effects is validated by the data.

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