BOJ reportedly may upgrade inflation forecast, hold rates steady at next week's meeting

Reports indicate the Bank of Japan may raise its inflation forecast while keeping policy rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. The transmission channel runs through inflation repricing and the rate differential: a higher price outlook without a rate move implies negative real rates persist for longer, which tends to weigh on the yen by keeping the carry trade attractive relative to rates in the US and other G10 economies. Yen crosses such as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are the most directly exposed, while Japanese government bond yields could face upward pressure as markets reassess the likelihood of future tightening. Traders should watch Tokyo core CPI and the BOJ's updated quarterly outlook report, which will show the revised inflation projections and signal how the board views the timing of its next rate hike.

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