Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters poll

A Reuters poll of economists indicates the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its October meeting but raise them at the December meeting. The transmission channel here runs through expected policy path rather than the immediate rate decision: a pause followed by a hike shifts the front-end of the curve and the timing of tightening, which tends to lift short-dated Treasury yields and widen US rate differentials against trading partners. The US dollar is the most directly exposed asset, since a later-but-firmer hike pushes forward rate expectations higher and supports USD demand relative to currencies whose central banks are seen on hold or easing. Two-year Treasury yields and fed funds futures pricing for December are the instruments most sensitive to this repricing, while longer-dated yields may respond more to inflation data than to the timing of the hike. The next concrete catalyst is the September US Consumer Price Index release, whose core inflation reading will determine whether the poll's December-hike expectation holds or gets priced out.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

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