Inflation in the UK has sped up to the highest since October last year and is likely to all but nail on a rate hike from the Bank of England at its November meeting.

UK inflation has accelerated to its highest level since October of last year, a reading that has pushed expectations toward a Bank of England rate increase at its November meeting. The transmission runs primarily through inflation repricing: a higher-than-expected CPI print lifts the probability of tighter policy, which raises expected short-term sterling interest rates and steepens the front end of the gilt curve. Short-dated gilts and sterling are the most directly exposed, since markets reprice the policy path there first, while longer-dated gilts respond to the implications for growth and fiscal borrowing costs. Rate-sensitive domestic equities, including housebuilders and highly leveraged firms, face pressure as the cost of financing rises. Traders will focus on the next monthly UK CPI release and the Bank of England's subsequent wage and labour market data, as these will determine whether the November hike is fully priced or still contested.

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