PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.6779 – Reuters estimate

Reuters estimates that the People's Bank of China will set the USD/CNY daily reference (fixing) rate at 6.6779, a level that is a market expectation rather than an official announcement. The fixing serves as the anchor for the yuan's trading band, so a reference rate set at this level signals where Beijing wants the currency to trade relative to the dollar on a given day. Because the onshore spot rate is permitted to move only within a narrow band around the fix, the mechanism operates through the policy signal embedded in the fixing: a stronger-than-expected fix tends to lean against depreciation pressure, while a weaker one can reflect tolerance for a softer yuan. The CNY and broader Chinese onshore FX market are most directly exposed, with offshore CNH and dollar-denominated Chinese assets also sensitive to any shift in the fixing bias. Traders will watch the daily fixing against the Reuters poll and the subsequent onshore spot move in the first trading hours for confirmation of the central bank's intent.

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