THE U.S. AND ISRAEL ARE CRAFTING A PLAN FOR IRAN STRIKES AFTER THE ELECTION, WITH HEGSETH HAVING MET NETANYAHU THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS NEW IRAN STRIKES - NYT

The New York Times reports that the United States and Israel are developing a plan for potential strikes on Iran to be executed after the U.S. election, and that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week to discuss new strike options. The primary market transmission channel is geopolitical risk premia feeding into oil supply expectations, since any military action against Iran raises the probability of disruption to Persian Gulf crude flows, including through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets, particularly Brent and WTI crude futures, along with tanker and insurance-linked equities, are most directly exposed, while Israeli and regional sovereign debt and the shekel may carry elevated risk premia reflecting security uncertainty. The next concrete catalysts traders will watch are the U.S. election outcome itself, which will define the timing and posture of any strike plan, and weekly EIA crude inventory data alongside any official statements from the Pentagon or Israeli government.

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