FIVE-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO 4.825% LOWEST SINCE SEPT 23, LAST DOWN 14.33 BASIS POINTS AT 4.827%

The five-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.825%, its lowest level since September 23, and was last quoted down 14.33 basis points at 4.827%. A decline of this size in a single session indicates a sharp repricing of the front-to-belly part of the curve, most likely reflecting a shift in expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate, since the five-year tenor is most sensitive to near-term policy outlook. Through the rate-differential channel, lower U.S. yields reduce the relative carry advantage of dollar assets, which tends to weigh on the USD against major currencies, while the ten-year Treasury (US10Y) would be expected to move in the same direction given the high correlation across the curve. Traders should watch the upcoming U.S. CPI and PCE inflation prints, as confirmation of cooling price pressures would reinforce the rate-cut repricing, whereas firmer data would likely reverse the move.

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