Oil: Risk premium supported by Gulf tensions – ING

Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf are keeping a risk premium in crude oil prices, according to analysts at ING reported by FXStreet. The transmission channel runs through supply risk: the market prices a higher probability of disruption to Gulf output and shipping routes, which lifts front-month contracts relative to their fundamentals. Crude-linked assets and energy equities are most directly exposed, while oil-importing currencies and inflation-sensitive rate expectations face indirect pressure as input costs rise. Traders should watch the next weekly EIA crude inventory report and any official statements on Gulf shipping security, since a shift in either could quickly unwind or extend the premium.

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