There is a 76% chance that the Fed hikes again in 2026, per Polymarket⁠.com. Last week, inflation for CPI and PPI came back hotter than expected.

A prediction market on Polymarket.com is pricing a 76% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates again in 2026, following hotter-than-expected readings for both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index last week. The transmission channel runs through inflation repricing: firmer price data pushes out expectations for policy easing and lifts the path of expected short-term rates, which widens the rate differential that supports the U.S. dollar against major peers. Rate-sensitive assets are most exposed, with the front end of the Treasury curve and dollar-denominated instruments repricing first, while duration-heavy bonds and long-dated equities face pressure from higher discount rates. The next concrete catalyst is the upcoming monthly CPI release, since a second consecutive hot print would validate the market's hike probability, whereas a softer reading would likely compress it and ease pressure on the dollar.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

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