Gold set for second weekly loss as oil-fuelled inflation concerns bolster Fed hike outlook

Gold is on track for a second consecutive weekly decline as rising oil prices have revived inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further. The primary transmission channel runs through real rates: higher expected policy rates lift real yields on Treasuries, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and tends to support the US dollar as a relative haven and beneficiary of tighter policy. Gold is the most directly exposed asset in this chain, given its sensitivity to real yield moves, while the dollar gains as rate differentials widen against other major currencies. Traders will be watching the next US consumer price index release and Fed commentary for confirmation of whether energy-driven inflation is feeding into core measures, which would validate the hike outlook.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

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