🔊 Markets no longer expect a Fed rate hike in December. Today's Reuters Morning Bid podcast looks at how the AI selloff is reshaping interest-rate expectations

Markets have moved to price out a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, according to a Reuters Morning Bid podcast that examines how an AI-linked equity selloff is reshaping interest-rate expectations. The transmission mechanism runs through the rates channel: a shift in hike probabilities lowers the expected path of short-term policy rates, which compresses U.S. two-year Treasury yields and narrows the rate differential that has supported the dollar. Risk appetite is a secondary channel, since equity drawdowns tied to technology valuations can prompt defensive positioning that may further weigh on yield-sensitive currency demand. The U.S. dollar is the most directly exposed asset, with the sensitivity expected to be sharpest against currencies whose central banks remain on a tightening or hawkish footing. Traders should watch the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls and core CPI releases, as either a firmer labor market or sticky inflation could revive hike pricing and reverse the dollar's current direction.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

Active traders typically follow a three-step workflow when a market-moving headline hits the wire: (1) read the headline on the terminal or hear it on the squawk box; (2) assess whether the news is already priced in (by checking intraday price action in the seconds before) or whether it's genuinely new information; (3) act — either entering a breakout position, fading an overreaction, or tightening stops on existing trades. Trading News Terminal's Pro plan delivers wire-grade headlines within seconds of the source, with automatic audio squawk on every HIGH-impact event, so the read-assess-act cycle never waits on a refresh button.