UK retail sales fall more than expected in September, complicating BOE rate hike outlook

UK retail sales fell by more than economists had expected in September, a softer print that adds to the case for the Bank of England to hold or slow its tightening path. The transmission runs through the inflation-repricing channel: weaker consumer demand reduces pressure on domestic prices, which in turn lowers the expected terminal rate and pulls short-dated gilt yields lower while the sterling rate differential narrows against peers. Sterling-linked assets and UK-domestic equities, particularly consumer-facing retailers and housebuilders sensitive to rate expectations, are the most exposed, with GBP crosses likely to reprice first. Traders will watch the next UK CPI release and the BOE's upcoming policy communication for confirmation of whether softer demand is feeding through to services inflation.

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